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Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/17/15
?Francogeddon? ? ?tsunami? ? ?carnage? ? The hyperbole after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly ended its three-year currency ceiling peg to the euro yesterday was not misplaced. The immediate impact has been profound across a range of markets. The longer-time ripples are only beginning to become apparent. This is what we?ve gleaned so far:

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/10/15
Greece's renewed drama is more noise than signal; U.S. job growth rolls merrily along

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/20/14
I recently revisited the economic projections we made last January, as part of my performance appraisal. I dread the experience, as it tends to highlight my frailty as a forecaster. This year wasnt too bad, though. Allowing for the polar vortex, we got U.S. growth just about right. We had been skeptical about Europe, and thought that China would moderate. Our call on how the Federal Reserve would progress was spot on. However, a number of things that transpired during 2014 caught us quite by surprise. Here is our roster of the most unexpected events and trends of the year.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/13/14
The Fed prepares to take a "considerable" step. We could be in for another round of emerging market volatility.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/6/14
Oil isn't the only commodity enduring a significant correction; The European Central Bank moves closer to QE; The U.S. is nearing full employment, but inflation holds the key to monetary policy

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/22/14
Mixed fortunes drive the outlook for holiday spending; The Fed and Bank of England are working harder to achieve consensus; The dollar has a long way to strengthen before it impairs U.S. growth

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/15/14
Falling oil prices produce gain... and pain; Brazil's post-election challenges; The Fed may seek to overshoot its inflation target

Weekly Market Summary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 11/7/14
The mid-term elections: A new cast faces old problems; Japan: Kuroda's Halloween surprise; The U.S. has very solid job growth but not much wage growth

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/25/14
Inflation is falling, but it won't go through the floor; Income inequality is affecting consumption categories; Do new mortgage lending rules strike the right balance?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/11/14
Hong Kong gets occupied; U.S. corporate taxes: Fact, fiction and framing; Has the U.S. Treasury blunted the Fed's QE program?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 10/4/14
What is a good monthly U.S. payroll number?; The September U.S. job data were strong but may not move the Fed's needle; Falling inflation and inflation expectations will keep central banks from tightening

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/27/14
The Federal Reserve begins looking toward the door; China's policymakers should be clearer about their intentions; Dissents at central banks are rising

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/19/14
The choice for Europe: coming together or breaking apart; Scotland votes nay; The dollar has been the beneficiary of global uncertainty

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/13/14
The implications of Scottish independence; U.S. consumer spending outlook remains positive.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 9/6/14
Can the eurozone avoid Japanification?; U.S. employment: Less rosy than expected; The U.S. capital spending outlook is promising

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/29/14
Flexible labor markets are key to recovering from recession; Wage trends present a challenge for the Fed; Bank settlements are sizeable, but the benefit to housing has been limited

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/23/14
The View from Jackson Hole; U.S. Auto Sales: Tailwinds Will Prevail; The Mystery of Long-Term Bond Yields

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/16/14
I have to digest a great deal of written material to keep up with the global economy. When I have free time to read, I often choose to decompress by enjoying the cartoons in The Authoritative Calvin and Hobbes Treasury or the food pictures in Bon Apptit. I know that sounds shallow, but it helps keep me sane.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/9/14
Wage Growth May Not Be the Best Gauge of Labor Market Progress; The ECB's Summer Holiday May Not Be Very Relaxing; A Novel Proposal for Mortgage Lending

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 8/4/14
The dynamics of the world energy market have changed dramatically since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries first restricted the supply of crude oil. Today, there are many more producers, many more consumers and many more alternatives than anyone could have imagined 40 years ago.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/26/14
Re-regulation has diminished market liquidity. Updated U.S. budget projections are improved but not comforting. The EU searches for the right response to Russia.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/19/14
From the Suez Canal, to Japanese bullet trains, to the American interstate highway system, to the Millennium Bridge to the Three Gorges Dam, the grandeur of infrastructure is on full display the world over. Awe-inspiring and beautiful to some, these fixtures also play a critical role in the functioning of the global economy. The choices nations make in the area of infrastructure can bear critically on prosperity.

June Employment Situation: Fitting Gift for Americas Birthday
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 7/5/14
Todays U.S. employment report was a very good one. It was strong enough to suggest good economic momentum but not so strong as to alarm the Federal Reserve.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum, Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/21/14
The Bank of England changes course; U.S. inflation is rising, but the Fed seems unconcerned; The situation in Iraq creates additional uncertainty around oil prices.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 6/14/14
The World Cup begins amid a series of financial controversies; Is the honeymoon over for Japan's Abenomics program?; The last word on Thomas Piketty

Why are bond yields and volatility so low?
by Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/9/14
This years mid-point review would not be terribly kind to me or to other forecasters. None of us foresaw a big U.S. economic contraction during the first quarter of the year, although we should have better times ahead (as long as the Polar Vortex doesnt return). A more vexing surprise, however, has been the steep decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the persistently low market volatility during the years first half.

The ECB finally acts and hopes for a good reaction
by Carl Tannenbaum and Asha Bangalore of Northern Trust, 6/6/14
Many have criticized the European Central Bank (ECB) for preferring words over action in recent months. So credit must be given to ECB President Mario Draghi and his colleagues for enacting a series of measures aimed at shaking the eurozone from its malaise. The question is whether yesterdays decision will result in more credit given to eurozone borrowers.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/30/14
Reflections from a fortnight abroad;Last weekend's European elections will make cooperation more difficult

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/17/14
China: Two different stories, one conclusion. The jury is still out on long-term U.S. growth. Fond memories of Gary Becker.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 5/9/14
The global recovery remains very uneven, deflation and debt: a very bad mix, a new look at Das Kapital, continued.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/25/14
The link between money and inflation has clouded, but it hasn?t disappeared

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/18/14
In a currency war, everyone loses. Should monetary policy be coordinated across countries? The International Monetary Fund is at a crossroads.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/12/14
The Federal Reserves search for stability. The patterns of world trade are undergoing important changes. Greece issued debt this week: good news or bad news?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 4/4/14
For the European Central Bank, actions will speak louder than words. US hiring is back on track. The debate over unemployment and wage pressure.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/29/14
Using energy as a pawn may work to Russias disadvantage in the long run. Chinas 2014 economic outlook is hazy. Lessons from the 2014 stress test.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/22/14
The Federal Reserves updated guidance takes a page from its past. Wage trends will guide the timing of tightening. Chinese banking reformers should be careful what they wish for.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/14/14
Global trade negotiations have stalled; This is a delicate time for Chinese finance; Where will Europes growth come from?

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 3/7/14
The fight over Ukraine is an unwelcome source of uncertainty; Hiring in the U.S. improves in February; American businesses have lots of cash to invest.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/28/14
The sensitivity of emerging markets complicates the Fed?s exit plans; Raising the minimum wage is not the only way to aid low-income workers; Brazil?s economy is faltering as the World Cup approaches.

Is the U.S. Economy Under the Weather?
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/21/14
Is the U.S. economy under the weather?; Japan is faltering a bit as year two of Abenomics begins; Bitcoin has generated a lot of attention, some of it unwanted

Arresting Disinflation Will Require Taking up the Slack
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/14/14
Arresting disinflation will require taking up the slack. Estimates of the U.S. output gap remain substantial. The U.S. achieves budget peace but still faces long-term fiscal challenges.

A Centennial to Celebrate - The Federal Reserve Looks Forward to Its Next 100 Years
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/13/14
The Feds centennial arrives at an interesting juncture. Never in its history has the American central bank been so deeply involved in economic management, and rarely has it attracted such controversy. The recent transition in Fed leadership marks the end of a significant era. In some ways, this makes it a perfect time to contemplate what the Fed was, what it has become and what it should be during its second century. The results of this review will be valuable to central banks the world over.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 2/7/14
Long-term unemployment needs to be addressed more intensively. Januarys jobs data was very much a mixed bag. Janet Yellens testimony will include thoughts on joblessness.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/31/14
Chinas shadow banking products are coming under the spotlight. Emerging markets: Be sure to differentiate. The fixed income sectors surprising strength.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/25/14
So while the Fed was the first to implement nontraditional monetary strategies, the BoE may be the first to unwind them. And it may be the first to test the power of macroprudential policy. The results might make for an interesting export back across the Atlantic.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/17/14
The U.S. budget deal reduces policy uncertainty. The fiscal state of the states is better, but challenges remain. Meeting the new cast at the Fed.

Weekly Economic Commentary: December U.S. Employment Report
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/10/14
December U.S. employment report clouded by weather-related factors. A review of the two U.S. employment surveys. The ECB reaches a critical stage.

Six Questions for 2014 - January 3, 2014
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 1/3/14
Our economic outlook for this year will be available next week. To provide a taste of whats ahead, here are six of the key questions well focus on during the coming months.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/20/13
As this will be our last weekly of the year, we thought we would offer some parting reflections on the year just past.

Weekly Economic Commentary
by Carl Tannenbaum of Northern Trust, 12/13/13
The Federal Reserve should find a way out of quantitative easing (QE) soon. And I think the Fed will take the first step in that direction at its December 17 - 18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Here are the arguments for and against reducing quantitative easing that the discussions will feature.
Results 551–600 of 641 found.