Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
Our long-time investors are probably wondering why we haven’t made any gains over the last 18 months.
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for June. The unemployment rate unexpectedly inch lower to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 147,000.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index held steady in June, inching down 0.2 points to 98.6.
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through July 7, 2025.
June's employment report showed that 82.8% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 while the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
AstraZeneca Plc’s Chief Executive Officer Pascal Soriot wants to move the drugmaker’s stock listing to the US, the Times reported, in what would be another sign of the UK’s waning status as a magnet for global capital.
The U.S. trade deficit expanded nearly 19% to -$71.5B, as exports declined more than imports declined.
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the June 30, 2025 close.
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 36.1.
Job openings unexpectedly jumped to a six-month high in May, reaching 7.769 million vacancies, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This marks the second straight monthly increase and was higher than the expected 7.320 million openings. Meanwhile, hires and layoffs declined, and quits increased.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in June, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a fourth straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.8.
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
For years, Americans have lamented that rising housing prices and elevated mortgage rates have made homeownership unaffordable for too many first-time homebuyers, while prompting many homeowners to stay put rather than sell.
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The general business activity index rose for a second straight month but remained in negative territory at -12.7. This marks the fifth straight month of worsening business conditions.
The S&P 500 Index just rallied back to all-time highs, brushing off the April tariff shock, the conflict with Iran and the insidious and persistent increase in US continuing jobless claims.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a third straight month to its lowest level since January. The index inched down to 40.4 in June from 40.5 in May, falling short of the 42.7 forecast.
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was flat in May and was up 3.9% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was down 0.60% month-over-month, marking the first monthly decline since January 2022. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.73%.
Today’s investment landscape, shaped by persistently above-target inflation, structurally higher debt and deficits, and reduced global dollar recycling into US financial markets, has contributed to elevated market volatility alongside historically high policy uncertainty.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.7% year-over-year in May. This was higher than the expected 2.6% growth and a pickup from 2.6% in April. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.2%, more than the projected 0.1% growth.
The newest generation of college graduates will switch jobs more than a dozen times over the course of their careers. They will juggle side gigs, launch businesses, and step in and out of traditional roles.
The third estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.50%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -1.00%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP third estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity continued to decline in June, with the composite index at -2. This marks the 22nd consecutive month the index has been negative. Meanwhile, future expectations rose for the first time in six months, increasing from 5 in May to 9 in June.
Existing home sales unexpectedly inched up in May. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 0.8% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million units.
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in May, coming in at 72.6. This marks a 1.8% increase from April, higher than the anticipated 0.2% rise, and a 1.1% increase from one year ago.
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is the interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money overnight. It's set by the FOMC and is one of the Federal Reserve's primary tools to implement monetary policy and is a key driver of economic activity. This video examines the Federal Funds Rate and reviews the Fed's latest interest rate meeting.
New home sales retreated in May, experiencing their largest monthly decline in nearly three years. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a sixth straight month.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® retreated in June, paring back nearly half of May's gains. The index fell 5.4 points to 93.0 this month, marking its sixth monthly decline in the past seven months.
Home prices declined in April as the benchmark national index fell for a second straight month. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month and a 2.7% increase year-over-year. This marks the third straight month of year-over-year declines and is the smallest annual gain since August 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change fell to -0.8% and annual change fell to -1.5%.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 434.9 in April, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.4% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 3.0% from one year ago.
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Supporters of tax cuts argue that they eventually "pay for themselves" and lower deficits through economic growth and increased revenue, even without significant spending cuts.
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Iron and steel mills employ about 85,700 people in the US. That’s less than half as many as in 1990 but slightly more than in 2016 and 2017.
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
One thing just about everyone will tell you about divorce is that it’s expensive. There are several reasons for that, chiefly the lack of education and awareness and the habitual use of lawyers rather than mediators.
Most of us are facing longer working lives, but that also means we need to remain healthier for longer. While linking the pensionable threshold to improving longevity is fair, up to a point...
Wall Street banks are reinforcing their calls that the dollar will weaken further, hit by interest-rate cuts, slowing economic growth and President Donald Trump’s trade and tax policies.
Assessment and selection of covered call funds is based on criteria like total return, distribution rate (sometimes referred to as yield), and fees.
Corporate credit spreads, whether investment grade or high yield, can often hint at hiccups in the stock market and the economy. But they tend to keep a low profile.
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. This video provides an update on FINRA's margin debt with data through April 2025.
Residential mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, are a big part of the securitized investment market. Here's what to know about MBS investing.
While official estimates remain fluid and subject to change, our preliminary analysis at the time of this writing suggests that the House Reconciliation Proposal could significantly increase the national debt over the next decade.
Tariffs have long been part of U.S. economic policy, but big changes can disrupt markets and trade. Here's a quick overview of some questions investors may have.
When CFRA’s Paige Meyer slapped a “sell” rating on UnitedHealth Group Inc. in February, she was the lone analyst out of 30 tracked by Bloomberg with a negative view of the company.
Debt collectors have been unpopular since ancient times, but they play a necessary role in the lending lifecycle. Their jobs are not easy: I recall one collector noting that there are few ways to communicate with defaulted borrowers.
This is the story of how we got to a moment in history defined by global and national crises. It is the story about how a radical geopolitical transition is taking place as old socio-economic and institutional cycles in the US end and new ones begin.
A rushed exit from conservatorship could increase mortgage rates and worsen home affordability.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers are weighing changes to key parts of the framework that guides their monetary policy decisions, including how they think about shortfalls in US employment and approach their inflation target.
By the end of April, the S&P 500 rallied its way back, recovering nearly all the declines notched in the opening days of the month when President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff plans tipped markets towards bear territory.
The early-April announcement of a broad new round of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners—followed by a pause for many of them—has triggered a tidal shift in the global economy. Uncertainty created by tariff negotiations, as well as burgeoning federal debt levels and other ongoing concerns, has far-reaching economic implications, leading us to reassess our 2025 outlook.
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
The federal government recently resumed student loan collections after a multi-year pause. This affects millions of borrowers who have been in forbearance since March 2020. Our Bill Cass outlines some options for borrowers in default.
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
Trend-following strategies can offer attractive, positively skewed returns, with large positive outperformance often coinciding with large equity selloffs, thereby offering tail protection.
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
A key valuation metric touted by legendary investor Warren Buffett is signaling that equities are relatively cheap, bolstering the case that the sizzling rebound in US stocks has room to run.
Understanding and integrating resilience into investment strategies is not just prudent, it is critical for navigating the complexities of the current market landscape. In this article, I lay out seven key principles towards building resilient portfolios.
The Covid-19 pandemic brought some big shifts in the US labor market. The biggest was the departure of millions of older workers, ending a decades-long rise in employment and labor-force participation rates for those 65 and older.
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
Ultimately, advisors should choose a rebalancing strategy that best serves their client’s needs without putting undue strain on their own operations.
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.
In the Middle Ages, a common form of punishment was some form of mutilation, which included cutting off the nose of a prisoner or purposefully marring one’s own appearance before the arrival of conquering armies
President Donald Trump said he would “absolutely” sign a bill banning congressional stock trading, saying he was concerned lawmakers could be using insider information for an advantage.
COVID-19: Coronavirus Coverage
At the Midway Point: Returning to the Fundamentals
Liberation Day seems like a lifetime ago. But the 90-day pause is almost over, and—thus far—there are few deals that have been consummated.
Emerging Markets Insights: Seeking Clarity on Tariffs
In this month’s issue, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity explains how markets in many regions are weathering US policy uncertainty and offers an upbeat assessment of Vietnam after a recent research visit.
Late 2021 Speculation is Back
Our long-time investors are probably wondering why we haven’t made any gains over the last 18 months.
U.S. Workforce Recovery Analysis: June 2025
Our monthly workforce recovery analysis has been updated to include the latest employment report for June. The unemployment rate unexpectedly inch lower to 4.1%. Additionally, the number of new non-farm jobs (a relatively volatile number subject to extensive revisions) came in at 147,000.
NFIB Small Business Survey: Optimism Remains Steady While Uncertainty Falls
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index held steady in June, inching down 0.2 points to 98.6.
World Markets Watchlist: July 7, 2025
Eight of the nine indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through July 7, 2025.
A Closer Look at Full-time and Part-time Employment: June 2025
June's employment report showed that 82.8% of total employed workers were full-time (35+ hours) and 17.2% of total employed workers were part-time (<35 hours).
The Big Four Recession Indicators: June Employment
There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In June, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 while the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched lower to 4.1%.
ISM Services PMI Returns to Expansion Territory in June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its June Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 50.8. This was consistent with the forecast and moves the index back into expansion territory after one month of contraction.
S&P Global Services PMI: Growth Sustained in June
The June U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global came in at 52.9, above the 52.8 forecast. The reading marks the 29th consecutive month of expansion but was a slight slow down from May's 53.7 reading.
AstraZeneca CEO Wants to Move Listing to US, Times Reports
AstraZeneca Plc’s Chief Executive Officer Pascal Soriot wants to move the drugmaker’s stock listing to the US, the Times reported, in what would be another sign of the UK’s waning status as a magnet for global capital.
Trade Deficit Expands 19% in May
The U.S. trade deficit expanded nearly 19% to -$71.5B, as exports declined more than imports declined.
Two Measures of Inflation: May 2025
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of May 2025, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 2.7% and core CPI at 2.8%.
The Four Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Is Today's Market?
This chart series features an overlay of four major secular bear markets: the Crash of 1929, the Oil Embargo of 1973, the Tech Bubble, and the Financial Crisis. The numbers are through the June 30, 2025 close.
P/E10 and Market Valuation: June 2025
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method, Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, using the most recent Standard & Poor's "as reported" earnings and earnings estimates, and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. The latest trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio is 27.2 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 36.1.
Job Openings Unexpectedly Jump to Six-Month High
Job openings unexpectedly jumped to a six-month high in May, reaching 7.769 million vacancies, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This marks the second straight monthly increase and was higher than the expected 7.320 million openings. Meanwhile, hires and layoffs declined, and quits increased.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slower Contraction in June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in June, indicating contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a fourth straight month. The latest reading was above the forecast of 48.8.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Highest Level in Three Years
U.S. manufacturing expanded for the sixth consecutive month in June, with the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI reaching a three-year high of 52.9. This was higher than the forecast of 52.0. However, tariffs continued to affect the sector, leading to increased inventory buildup and a sharp acceleration in inflation.
Could Housing Finally Start to Become More Affordable?
For years, Americans have lamented that rising housing prices and elevated mortgage rates have made homeownership unaffordable for too many first-time homebuyers, while prompting many homeowners to stay put rather than sell.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing: Business Conditions Continued to Worsen in June
The Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The general business activity index rose for a second straight month but remained in negative territory at -12.7. This marks the fifth straight month of worsening business conditions.
Stocks are Defying the Naysayers. They Can Keep Going.
The S&P 500 Index just rallied back to all-time highs, brushing off the April tariff shock, the conflict with Iran and the insidious and persistent increase in US continuing jobless claims.
Chicago PMI Falls Further to 5-Month Low
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell for a third straight month to its lowest level since January. The index inched down to 40.4 in June from 40.5 in May, falling short of the 42.7 forecast.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Down 0.1% in May
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was flat in May and was up 3.9% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was down 0.1% month-over-month and up 1.5% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Down 0.7% in May
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was down 0.60% month-over-month, marking the first monthly decline since January 2022. When adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was down 0.73%.
A Bond Alternative for the New Era of Investing
Today’s investment landscape, shaped by persistently above-target inflation, structurally higher debt and deficits, and reduced global dollar recycling into US financial markets, has contributed to elevated market volatility alongside historically high policy uncertainty.
Core PCE Inflation Rises 2.7% in May, Higher Than Expected
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 2.7% year-over-year in May. This was higher than the expected 2.6% growth and a pickup from 2.6% in April. On a monthly basis, the core index was up 0.2%, more than the projected 0.1% growth.
401(k)s Weren’t Built for the Gen Z Economy
The newest generation of college graduates will switch jobs more than a dozen times over the course of their careers. They will juggle side gigs, launch businesses, and step in and out of traditional roles.
GDP Per Capita: Q1 2025 Third Estimate
The third estimate for Q1 GDP came in at -0.50%, a deceleration from 2.45% for the Q4 third estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at -1.00%, a slowdown from 1.82% for the Q4 headline number.
An Inside Look at the Q1 2025 GDP Third Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2025 GDP third estimate, two of the four components made positive contributions.
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing: Activity Continued to Decline in June
The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey revealed regional activity continued to decline in June, with the composite index at -2. This marks the 22nd consecutive month the index has been negative. Meanwhile, future expectations rose for the first time in six months, increasing from 5 in May to 9 in June.
Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Inch Up in May
Existing home sales unexpectedly inched up in May. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales rose 0.8% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million units.
Pending Home Sales Up 1.8% in May, Higher Than Expected
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in May, coming in at 72.6. This marks a 1.8% increase from April, higher than the anticipated 0.2% rise, and a 1.1% increase from one year ago.
Fed’s Interest Rate Decision: June 18, 2025
The Federal Reserve concluded its fourth meeting of the year by keeping the federal funds rate (FFR) at 4.25-4.50%, as expected.
The Fed's Interest Rate Decision: June 18, 2025
The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is the interest rate banks charge each other to borrow money overnight. It's set by the FOMC and is one of the Federal Reserve's primary tools to implement monetary policy and is a key driver of economic activity. This video examines the Federal Funds Rate and reviews the Fed's latest interest rate meeting.
New Home Sales Retreat to 7-Month Low
New home sales retreated in May, experiencing their largest monthly decline in nearly three years. Meanwhile the median price for a new home remained above $400,000 for a sixth straight month.
Consumer Confidence Retreats in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® retreated in June, paring back nearly half of May's gains. The index fell 5.4 points to 93.0 this month, marking its sixth monthly decline in the past seven months.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index: Annual Gains Continue to Slow
Home prices declined in April as the benchmark national index fell for a second straight month. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.4% decrease month-over-month and a 2.7% increase year-over-year. This marks the third straight month of year-over-year declines and is the smallest annual gain since August 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change fell to -0.8% and annual change fell to -1.5%.
FHFA House Price Index Down 0.4% in April
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) fell to 434.9 in April, the first monthly decline since August 2022. U.S. house prices were down 0.4% from the previous month, lower than the expected 0.1% growth, and up 3.0% from one year ago.
America's Driving Habits: April 2025
Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.12% month-over-month and was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.06% MoM and down 0.97% YoY.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Activity Remained Weak in June
The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showed weak activity this month. The index was unchanged at -4.0, marking the third straight negative reading. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.7.
Supply Chain Messages About the Trade War
What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.
Bigger Than Tariffs
Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales Fall 1.0% in May
Nominal retail sales in May were down 0.91% month-over-month (MoM) and up 3.29% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were down 0.99% MoM and up 0.89% YoY.
NAHB Housing Market Index: Builder Confidence Drops to 2.5-Year Low
Builder confidence fell for a second straight month in June as elevated rates, tariffs, and economic uncertainty dragged builder sentiment to its lowest level in 2.5 years.
Retail Sales Sink 0.9% in May, Worse Than Expected
The Census Bureau's Advance Retail Sales Report for May showed consumer spending pulled back significantly last month, with headline sales sinking 0.9%.
It’s Not About Trump
Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Continued to Decline in June
Manufacturing activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing June survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 6.8 points to -16.0. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -5.9.
Household Net Worth Q1 2025: The "Real" Story
As of Q1 2025, the latest Fed balance sheet indicates that household net worth has risen 186% since reaching its 2009 low. However, when adjusted for inflation, household net worth has actually increased by only 91% since the 2009 trough.
The Florida Pension Fund Managers Who've Beaten the S&P 500 Over 50 Years
Unlike most other US public retirement plans of its size, the Tampa Fire & Police Pension Fund doesn’t invest in hedge funds, private equity or private credit.
Gold has Glittered Amidst Storming Markets
Gold plays a distinct role in the global monetary system. Simply put, it’s perceived as money, and its function as a store of value makes it arguably the world’s most popular hedge against inflation.
Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Cooler Than Expected in May
Wholesale inflation heated up in May but was still cooler than anticipated. The producer price index for final demand was up 0.1% month-over-month after falling 0.2% in April. This was lower than the expected 0.2% growth.
Will the Trump Tax Cuts Pay for Themselves?
Supporters of tax cuts argue that they eventually "pay for themselves" and lower deficits through economic growth and increased revenue, even without significant spending cuts.
Real Middle Class Wages as of May 2025
This series has been updated to include the May release of the consumer price index as the deflator and the monthly employment update. The latest hypothetical real (inflation-adjusted) annual earnings are at $52,538, down 5.8% from over 50 years ago.
Inside the Consumer Price Index: May 2025
Inflation affects everything from grocery bills to rent, making the Consumer Price Index (CPI) one of the most closely watched economic indicators. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks this by categorizing spending into eight categories, each weighted by its relative importance.
Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises to 2.4% in May, Lower Than Expected
Inflation rose for the first time in four months in May. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index was at 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in April but lower than the expected 2.5% growth.
What's the 10-Year Outlook for Major Asset Classes?
The global economy is continually evolving due to inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics. How could these and other factors influence the major asset classes over the coming decade?
Mid-Year Outlook: International Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Why Steel Users Don’t Make More of a Fuss About Tariffs
Iron and steel mills employ about 85,700 people in the US. That’s less than half as many as in 1990 but slightly more than in 2016 and 2017.
Fixed Income Outlook: Cool and Cloudy
Bouts of volatility may continue in the second half of 2025 as bond market investors navigate evolving tariff policy, U.S. government debt, and economic uncertainty.
2025 Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy
Investors may revisit international exposure in their portfolios amidst reduced market reactions to tariff announcements, uncertain U.S. policy and lagging U.S. stock performance.
Consider a Certified Divorce Financial Analyst to Save Money During Your Divorce
One thing just about everyone will tell you about divorce is that it’s expensive. There are several reasons for that, chiefly the lack of education and awareness and the habitual use of lawyers rather than mediators.
Working Until 70 Isn’t so Bad Provided you Feel 55
Most of us are facing longer working lives, but that also means we need to remain healthier for longer. While linking the pensionable threshold to improving longevity is fair, up to a point...
Wall Street Sees Deeper Dollar Rout as Currency Nears 2023 Low
Wall Street banks are reinforcing their calls that the dollar will weaken further, hit by interest-rate cuts, slowing economic growth and President Donald Trump’s trade and tax policies.
Three Drivers of Covered Call Fund Performance
Assessment and selection of covered call funds is based on criteria like total return, distribution rate (sometimes referred to as yield), and fees.
Credit Spreads: Under the Radar, but Influential
Corporate credit spreads, whether investment grade or high yield, can often hint at hiccups in the stock market and the economy. But they tend to keep a low profile.
Margin Debt: April 2025
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. This video provides an update on FINRA's margin debt with data through April 2025.
Understanding Mortgage-Backed Securities Investing
Residential mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, are a big part of the securitized investment market. Here's what to know about MBS investing.
The Big Beautiful Bill: Stimulus Now, Tightening Later
While official estimates remain fluid and subject to change, our preliminary analysis at the time of this writing suggests that the House Reconciliation Proposal could significantly increase the national debt over the next decade.
What is a Tariff and How Does it Work?
Tariffs have long been part of U.S. economic policy, but big changes can disrupt markets and trade. Here's a quick overview of some questions investors may have.
UnitedHealth Plunge Stunned Wall Street. One Analyst Saw It Coming
When CFRA’s Paige Meyer slapped a “sell” rating on UnitedHealth Group Inc. in February, she was the lone analyst out of 30 tracked by Bloomberg with a negative view of the company.
Student Debt Default Deluge
Debt collectors have been unpopular since ancient times, but they play a necessary role in the lending lifecycle. Their jobs are not easy: I recall one collector noting that there are few ways to communicate with defaulted borrowers.
How We Got Here
This is the story of how we got to a moment in history defined by global and national crises. It is the story about how a radical geopolitical transition is taking place as old socio-economic and institutional cycles in the US end and new ones begin.
The Future of the GSEs: Do No Harm
A rushed exit from conservatorship could increase mortgage rates and worsen home affordability.
Powell Signals 2020 Fed Framework Language on Chopping Block
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers are weighing changes to key parts of the framework that guides their monetary policy decisions, including how they think about shortfalls in US employment and approach their inflation target.
Is the Coast Clear Yet?
By the end of April, the S&P 500 rallied its way back, recovering nearly all the declines notched in the opening days of the month when President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff plans tipped markets towards bear territory.
Active Fixed Income Perspectives Q2 2025: Risks to Realities
The early-April announcement of a broad new round of tariffs against virtually all U.S. trading partners—followed by a pause for many of them—has triggered a tidal shift in the global economy. Uncertainty created by tariff negotiations, as well as burgeoning federal debt levels and other ongoing concerns, has far-reaching economic implications, leading us to reassess our 2025 outlook.
Hate It or Love It: Sentiment's Message
The April plunge in stocks ushered in a huge washout in investor sentiment, but more so on the attitudinal side as opposed to the behavioral side.
Basel III Makes It Official: Gold Is Money Again
For my entire decades-long career in capital markets, I’ve made the case that gold is not just a shiny relic of the past, but a serious, strategic asset for modern investors. After years of pounding the table, it feels pretty good to say that the world’s central banks—and now the U.S. banking system—are finally catching up.
For Students With College Debt in Default, it’s Time to Pay the Bill
The federal government recently resumed student loan collections after a multi-year pause. This affects millions of borrowers who have been in forbearance since March 2020. Our Bill Cass outlines some options for borrowers in default.
Gridlock
Private equity transaction volumes remain limited despite predictions for a boom in 2025. With interest rates remaining elevated and the economic backdrop increasingly uncertain, executing acquisitions and IPOs is proving a challenge, leading financial sponsors to hold portfolio companies for longer.
Walking the Tightrope: Trend Following’s Tricky Tradeoffs
Trend-following strategies can offer attractive, positively skewed returns, with large positive outperformance often coinciding with large equity selloffs, thereby offering tail protection.
Tariffs: Q1 Impacts and Q2 Negotiations
A look back at the impacts of tariff announcements last quarter, and what we might expect from tariff negotiations during the 90-day implementation delay in Q2.
Warren Buffett’s Favorite Valuation Indicator Flashes Buy Signal
A key valuation metric touted by legendary investor Warren Buffett is signaling that equities are relatively cheap, bolstering the case that the sizzling rebound in US stocks has room to run.
Seven Principles of Portfolio Resilience
Understanding and integrating resilience into investment strategies is not just prudent, it is critical for navigating the complexities of the current market landscape. In this article, I lay out seven key principles towards building resilient portfolios.
Gen Z’s Hole in the Labor Market Could Soon Grow
The Covid-19 pandemic brought some big shifts in the US labor market. The biggest was the departure of millions of older workers, ending a decades-long rise in employment and labor-force participation rates for those 65 and older.
Margin Debt: March 2025
Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Margin debt is often seen as a measure of investor sentiment and risk appetite. High levels of margin debt can signal confidence, but extreme spikes may also indicate excessive speculation, increasing the risk of market instability.
What Is the Optimal Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy?
Ultimately, advisors should choose a rebalancing strategy that best serves their client’s needs without putting undue strain on their own operations.
Home Ownership Rate Falls to Five-Year Low
The Census Bureau released its latest quarterly report for Q1 2025 showing the latest homeownership rate is at 65.1%, the lowest level in over five years.
Cutting Off Your Nose to Spite Your Face
In the Middle Ages, a common form of punishment was some form of mutilation, which included cutting off the nose of a prisoner or purposefully marring one’s own appearance before the arrival of conquering armies
Trump Says He Would Sign Bill Banning Congressional Stock Trades
President Donald Trump said he would “absolutely” sign a bill banning congressional stock trading, saying he was concerned lawmakers could be using insider information for an advantage.