Energy

This quarter might best be described as the “Big Beautiful Bounce”. Or the BBB. History has proven time and time again that markets do come back – but this was a historically quick market turnaround.

After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.

From investing to economics to politics, patterns emerge, lessons resurface and the past becomes a powerful guide for navigating today’s unpredictable landscape. Timing, perspective and adaptability can make all the difference in managing the complexities of modern markets.

Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.

Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.

The US economy is important, but it’s not the only one in a global approach.

For good reasons, many investors have a love-hate relationship with commodity investments. Operationally, the annoying K-1 form complicates tax filing, although thankfully the industry has started to launch “no K-1” funds.

This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months

Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.

Only a subset of subsidies will be rolled back.

A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.

Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.

The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.

Until that US government debt-crisis moment arrives, which we will get through, things will muddle along.

Jeff Chang, CFA, President of Vest, a pioneer of Target Outcome Investments with some $50 billion under management, examines how geopolitical events like U.S. airstrikes can create ripple effects across global markets, and why the actual impact often depends more on context than headlines suggest.

Surprisingly, oil prices are receding after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.

Tensions in the Middle East and their effect on oil prices have dominated the recent news headlines—and for good reason. A rise in oil prices, especially if it lasts, can push up inflation and slow down economic growth.

While both valuation and technical factors suggest to us that the dollar may continue to weaken in the near-term, we would caution investors against reading too much concerning the US’ long-term economic stability into further dollar weakness.

Inflation's trend has been favorable this year, but a growing conflict in Iran—combined with already-imposed tariffs—might put upward pressure in prices later this year.

Doug Drabik discusses fixed income market conditions and offers insight for bond investors.

The U.S. strike on Iran over the weekend has added a modest premium to oil, and in the Sunday evening market, stocks opened only slightly lower. Any resolution to the crisis could send stocks to new all-time highs.

The U.S. Dollar Index, when measured against a basket of other major currencies, has declined by approximately 10% this year through mid-June and is currently trading at its lowest level in three years.

Looking back on it, the first quarter of the year was a complete anomaly. Real GDP declined at a 0.2% annual rate, and the left side of the political spectrum said this proved current policies were a disaster.

This week the news is about the Israel-Iran conflict. It’s terrifyingly real for those in the crossfire, while we who are safe naturally wonder what it means for us. As investors, we think about the economic and market effects. But are we seeing signal or noise?

Given the uncertainty of future events, global investors seek a “safe haven” for investment dollars. As such, U.S. Treasury Bonds and the U.S. dollar appreciate given their perceived “financial safety.” Last week, global investors were already starting to make that shift with the dollar rising.

The Federal Reserve held rates steady today, while also projecting slow economic growth, higher unemployment, and higher inflation. And while the Fed signaled that two further rate cuts are still their base-case for the remainder of 2025, the timing of those cuts remains up in the air.

On Monday, Tortoise Capital expanded its fund library with the launch of the Tortoise Energy Fund (TNGY). Formerly a mutual fund, the Tortoise Energy Fund is now an ETF available on the New York Stock Exchange.

This is the first in a three-part series outlining why I believe bonds are set to outperform. Here, I focus on the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, the June 2025 meeting, and why the Fed’s approach is positive for bond investors. Parts 2 and 3 will address valuation, politics, recession risk, and the secular horizon.

Despite consumer fears of 1970s-style inflation, actual CPI has cooled to just 2.4%. Jeff Weniger makes the case that we may be living in a Goldilocks scenario, where price trends align with a stable and balanced economic environment.

In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation analyzes Eversource Energy (ES), for Income and Total Return, a New England-based utility known for its consistent earnings and dividend growth.

If there is something the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not want to see today, as it approaches next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, it is a shock to oil prices.

What happens in global supply chains can provide insight into how tariffs and the trade war may affect economies around the world.

The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.

Describes how what is happening to the economy is bigger than tariffs, it is the business cycle. It includes a comment on the FOMC meeting tomorrow, uses economic data up through this morning (retail sales), and includes a nice cartoon which can be used as a thumbnail (below).

Bonds hit a headwind in May as rates rose, but year to date, they have helped offset some of the volatility seen in stocks. See Table 2 for bond index returns for May 2025, Q1 2025, and YTD.

Michael Browne, Chief Investment Officer at Martin Currie discusses inflation, energy and the art of the possible.

President Donald Trump’s announcement on Wednesday of a new trade agreement with China is the kind of headline that gives markets a sense of relief. As I overheard this week at Wealth Management’s EDGE conference, which I attended in Boca Raton, Florida, we may have dodged a recession.

This week’s market resilience in the face of rising geopolitical tensions underscores an important structural shift. The Israeli strikes and broader Middle East dynamics, while concerning, sparked only a modest reaction—a far cry from the volatility such events triggered in past decades.

Lately, the “deficit narrative” has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual “purveyors of doom.” In this post, we will discuss the “deficit narrative,” the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence.

Separating the signal from the noise may be the hardest challenge investors face. We’re all surrounded by constantly changing but mostly unimportant information. Of the small part that really is important, we must decide if it affects our investments.

In part one of our new series, AI Alpha, we explored the sweeping potential of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative force.

Alex Veroude, Global Head of Fixed Income, believes fixed income investors can prepare for an uncertain journey by recognising trends and diversifying across different assets.

In this video, Chuck Carnevale, co-founder of FAST Graphs, aka Mr. Valuation presents a detailed analysis of Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), a midstream master limited partnership (MLP) known for its high income potential, offering investors a stable and growing dividend yield.

In the history of technological progress, there's often a critical misreading. We think the leap is in the product—the engine, the chip, the app.

Despite inflation worries, fiscal deficit concerns, and continued geopolitical conflict, equity markets posted strong returns in May on the back of easing tariff tensions, lower probability of recession, and better than expected US Q1 earnings.

The first half of 2025 has been driven by headlines that have caused volatility in both the stock and bond markets. While tariff negotiations have commanded the most attention, we are now pivoting to the federal budget deficit, which feels like a perpetual headline over the last 15 years.

While the immediate path for tariffs may drift lower, the U.S. legislative branch is hammering out a tax and spending bill that seems to favor tax cuts over lower spending, reviving worries over the U.S. budget deficit and a growing debt burden that cannot be ignored.

If we lived in a world where mobile signals were visible, the sky would shimmer like a storm—layers of frequencies rolling over rooftops, crossing oceans and saturating valleys.