Markets are always changing — and sometimes the rules of finance do, too. I believe markets are efficient, which means my investment portfolio is pretty much all index funds. My enthusiasm for indexing is based on evidence from the Before Times, when the question of a corporation’s index-worthiness was straightforward.
Small Cap
Treasury Yields Snapshot: July 2, 2026
The yield on the 10-year note finished July 2, 2026 at 4.49% while the 2-year note ended at 4.14%.
America's Driving Habits: May 2026
Travel on all roads and streets decreased in May. The 12-month moving average was down 0.06% month-over-month but was up 0.93% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was down 0.10% month-over-month and up 0.32% year-over-year.
Vehicle Sales Reach 9-Month High in June
Vehicle sales rose to their highest level in nine months in June, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.523 million units. This represents a 2.8% increase from the previous month and a 4.4% rise from one year ago.
AI Power Crunch Has Investors Seeking Next IPO Winners
The artificial intelligence boom has a power problem, and Wall Street is betting billions on companies that promise to solve it — even if some of the technology hasn’t been fully developed yet.
Global Investment Outlook—Resilience
A look at the resilient global economy, evolving market opportunities, and key risks shaping the investment outlook.
Third Quarter Commentary: Tailwinds Return as Energy Prices Ease
Global stocks surged during the second quarter as oversold conditions in March and de-escalation in the Middle East created ripe conditions for a rally. In the United States, the large-cap S&P 500 index climbed by 13%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index increased by nearly 25% (yCharts).
June Review: Markets Remain Resilient Amid Oil and Inflation Uncertainty
June saw strong market fundamentals once again in conflict with macroeconomic uncertainties, creating a choppy market. While a durable peace plan with Iran is seemingly underway, investors have regarded the negotiations with caution, pricing in potential setbacks.
The Q2 Flowdown: ETFs Smash Records to Start Summer
Markets may have ended the first quarter with a thud, but stocks put another record run in the books to close out the first half of 2026. The U.S. ETF market had already shattered records, crossing the $15 trillion threshold and cruising past $1 trillion in net inflows right before summer officially began.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index: Home Price Growth Remains Constrained
Home prices fell for a second straight month in April according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index, as the housing slowdown intensifies. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national index dropped 0.1% month-over-month and was up 0.8% year-over-year.
10-Year Treasury Yield Long-Term Perspective: June 2026
The 10-year Treasury yield has experienced dramatic fluctuations, ranging from a peak of 15.68% in October 1981, during the height of the Volcker era, to a historic low of 0.55% in August 2020, amidst the economic uncertainty of the pandemic. At the end of June 2026, the weekly average stood at 4.44%.
S&P Factor Performance Highlights Momentum in June & Q2
As growth stumbled, the S&P 500 Momentum Index captures a 7.5% gain in June and a 44% gain in the second quarter.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Slightly Slower Expansion in June
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 53.3 in June, down from 54.0 in May, marking slightly slower growth. The latest reading was just below the 53.8 forecast and is the index's sixth straight month in expansion territory.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™: Growth Slips to 3-Month Low Despite Expansion
U.S. manufacturing expanded for an eleventh straight month in June but the growth eased to its lowest level in three months. The S&P Global PMI fell 1.2 points to 53.9 last month, falling short of the 55.7 forecast.
S&P Winning Streak for July at Risk With Volatile End to Month
July is a great time to buy stocks. In fact, it’s been the best month for the S&P 500 Index in the past two decades. Bulls are finding comfort in that history ahead of what stands to be an eventful stretch.
Has Stock Market Exuberance Become Irrational?
A strong quarter across major indexes. The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%. Despite some twists and turns, the path of least resistance for stocks broadly remained up and to the right for much of the last three months.
83(b) Election for Startup Equity: What Founders Need to Know
Startup equity decisions often happen before a founder has a full advisory team in place. Formation documents get signed, vesting schedules are approved, and the tax consequences may not feel urgent because the company is still young.
Markets Broaden as AI Costs Rise and Inflation Pressures Linger
In our view, this divergence continues to reflect how the buildout of artificial intelligence (AI) is influencing both the economy and markets as it progresses across the value chain, even as the associated costs continue to climb.
Megacap Weakness, AI Momentum, and Hawkish Fed Repricing Drive Markets
Geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and inflation each took their turn commanding market attention last week. U.S. equities were mixed, as a pullback in technology names masked broadening performance beneath the surface.
The Overlooked Opportunity Inside Workplace Retirement Plans
For decades, financial advisors have built strong relationships by helping clients manage IRAs, taxable accounts, and rollover assets after they leave an employer. Meanwhile, a significant, often the largest pool, of client wealth has quietly remained out of reach: assets inside workplace retirement plans.
Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: June 2026
Valid until the market close on July 31, 2026
This article provides an update on the monthly moving averages we track for the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio after the close of the last business day of the month.
Chicago PMI Cools in June but Maintains Expansion
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index cooled 6.0 points in June to 56.7, signaling an expansion in regional business activity for a second straight month. The latest reading was higher than the projected 55.7.
FHFA House Price Index Retreats from Record High
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) retreated in April, falling 0.1% from the previous month's record high to 441.4.
Consumer Confidence Inched Down in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® inched up in June, rising 0.6 points to 91.2. Despite the improvement, the index came in below the forecast of 94.4.
Chip Stocks’ Best Quarter Ever Is Ending With Some Wild Swings
Chip stocks are heading for their best quarter ever, extending an extraordinary start to the year driven by insatiable demand for artificial intelligence equipment. But after recent jitters sent the stocks tumbling, investors are wondering how much further the rally can go.
An Epic David vs. Goliath Stock Battle Is Underway
Meme mania swept through Wall Street in 2021. Retail investors gathered on social media and coordinated trading strategies to short squeeze high-profile hedge funds.
Four Lessons Brexit Taught Me About Gold and Protecting Your Wealth
Ten years ago this week, the world watched the United Kingdom vote to walk away from the European Union. While the political class was clutching its pearls and every talking head on television was promising Armageddon by Christmas, I told you something different.
Rotation Nation. Large-Cap Growth on Sale.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
The Credit Market Lens: What BDC Redemptions and NAV Pressures Mean for Investors
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
Markets: What to Watch Midway Through 2026
It’s hard to believe we’re nearing the halfway point of 2026 – and what an eventful start it’s been. Markets have pushed through a geopolitically driven energy shock, rising inflation pressures and accelerating disruption from the artificial intelligence boom.
What the Top 10 Active ETFs YTD Can Tell Us
The top 10 active ETFs YTD by fund flows show some intriguing trends and successful names that may pique the interest.
World Markets Watchlist: June 29, 2026
Six of the nine indexes on our world markets watch list posted year-to-date gains through June 29, 2026.
Old Lessons From Jesse Livermore for Today’s Market
Jesse Livermore’s prolific trading stories about the fortunes he made and lost are well documented in two books. While his career was marked by the incredible volatility of his wealth, and some consider him a failure as he died broke, his market knowledge is invaluable. Accordingly, we share his 21 market rules.
The SPIVA Scorecard Does Not Capture the Actual Experience of Investors
The way the SPIVA U.S. Scorecard evaluates performance is not well aligned with the experience of investors. Adjusting for this reveals a more balanced view of active fund performance. While active and passive U.S. equity funds perform similarly, active bond funds tend to outperform.
Microsoft’s $530 Billion Rout Sets Up Its Worst Month Since 2008
Microsoft Corp. shares are heading for their worst month in years as investors continue to fret about how the software giant will fare in a world marked by artificial intelligence.
The Fed Needs to Follow the Rules. But Which One?
The Federal Reserve’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh, plans to convene no fewer than five task forces to review the central bank’s methods and operations. They will ask how the Fed can improve its communications, balance-sheet policy, use of data, understanding of “productivity and jobs in an era of transformation,” and delivery of price stability.
Fed Conundrum: Are Rates Restrictive?
From our experience participating in Fed meetings, we know that the dot plot has never been universally embraced within the institution. The concern was not that it lacked informational value, but rather that markets interpreted it as a forecast, which was never its intended purpose. Forward guidance is meant to shape expectations and influence behavior, not to serve as a firm prediction of future policy decisions.
Tech Rally Grounded in Fundamentals
As expectations have shifted toward slower growth, higher inflation, and higher rates, investors have rotated back to sectors like large-cap technology and semiconductors, capable of delivering durable earnings in a tougher macro environment.
Inflation Sinks Deeper
I’m hopeful new chair Kevin Warsh will help change the Fed’s inflation-tolerating institutional culture. Early signs look positive. Today we’ll talk about how insidious inflation is and why those who think a little inflation is fine should have their heads examined. It is not fine… for anyone.
Is AI Inflationary or Deflationary?
The AI boom goes from strength to strength. Big technology companies are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into chips, data centers and power-hungry infrastructure. One estimate puts annual AI infrastructure investment above $650 billion in 2025 and potentially over $800 billion in 2026..
Private Credit, Explained
Private credit is having a moment in the headlines. Higher interest rates and a pullback in certain types of bank lending have pushed more financing activity into private markets. Investors may be left with a simple question: What exactly is private credit?
Market Broadening, AI, and the Case for Diversification
As the market continues to broaden in 2026, a balanced approach matters more than ever.
AI Is a Secular Growth Unicorn
AI is both a foundational technology and the ultimate replacement product, which we believe explains why it has attracted unprecedented levels of capital and why the investment opportunities are so compelling.
JPMorgan’s Lake Exits, Setting Up New Race to Succeed Dimon
JPMorgan Chase & Co. named Troy Rohrbaugh and Doug Petno co-presidents as the abrupt departure of consumer banking chief Marianne Lake marked another twist in the race to succeed Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.
Core PCE Inflation at 3.4% in May, Highest Level Since 2023
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, climbed 3.4% year-over-year in May. This marks the highest level since October 2023 and marks a pickup from April's 3.3% reading. On a monthly basis, core prices rose 0.3%.
Two Measures of Inflation: May 2026
Inflation remains a hot topic, directly impacting everything from your grocery bill to interest rates. As of the latest data, two key inflation gauges — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — show that prices are still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with the core PCE at 3.4% and core CPI at 2.9%.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income
Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.70% in May and was up 3.62% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.25% month-over-month and down 0.43% year-over-year.
Real Disposable Income Per Capita Up 0.2% in May
With the release of May's report on personal incomes and outlays, we can now take a closer look at "real" disposable personal income per capita. To two decimal places, disposable income per capita was up up 0.68% month-over-month. But when adjusted for inflation, real disposable income per capita was up 0.23%.
Durable Goods Orders Sink 4.5% in May, Less Than Expected
New orders for manufactured durable goods sank 4.5% in May to $332.05B, slightly less than the projected 5.0% monthly decline.
GDP Per Capita: Q1 2026 Third Estimate
The third estimate for Q1 GDP came in at 2.09%, an acceleration from 0.48% for the Q4 final estimate. With a per-capita adjustment, the headline number is lower at 1.91%, a pickup from 0.18% for the Q4 headline number.
An Inside Look at the Q1 2026 GDP Third Estimate
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is comprised of four major subcomponents. In the Q1 2026 GDP third estimate, three of the four components made positive contributions.
Will Greater Monetary Policy Uncertainty Lead to Tighter Financial Conditions?
Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting as chair mattered less for the rate decision than for what he revealed about how the Fed intends to operate. Warsh signaled a shift toward less guidance and more flexibility.
New Home Sales Drop 7% in May
New home sales fell more than expected in May while the median price rose for a second straight month.
3 AI Governance Failures in Financial Advisory: What the File Needs to Show
Advisors have largely made up their minds about AI. What they have not settled is governance. AI adoption ran ahead of policy, the way it usually does, and the gap between the two is where the trouble starts.
Tech Stocks Lead Bounce After $1.3 Trillion Rout on Nasdaq 100
US technology stocks rebounded, lifting key indexes, after the latest flareup of concerns about the scale of the artificial-intelligence-fueled rally wiped nearly $1.3 trillion from the market capitalization of Nasdaq 100 companies over the first two days of the week.
Thornburg Expands ETF Suite With New Premium Income Builder Fund
THOR builds upon the success of the firm’s Thornburg Investment Income Builder Strategy, bringing that same income generation expertise into a flexible, actively managed ETF.
SpaceX’s Quickfire Investment-Grade Rating Brings Out Skeptics
SpaceX is seeking to raise between $20 billion and $25 billion from a debut bond offering on Tuesday, after attracting about $30 billion of investor orders even before the sales process had formally begun, according to people with knowledge of the matter. At that size, the deal would rank among the biggest of the year, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.
Benchmarks Are Broken: Why Antiquated Methodologies Fail Fixed Income
While the market-cap methodology has been the guiding principle for equity index creators, it’s increasingly viewed as a structural error in the world of fixed income. Today, TMX VettaFi is helping to spearhead a growing movement of index innovators who are inclined to challenge the fixed income status quo.
Fed Signals Keep Rate Risks in Focus
U.S. equities posted a modest advance during the holiday-shortened trading week despite a Wednesday sell-off following a more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve meeting under its new chair, Kevin Warsh.
U.S. Debt, Interest Rates, and the Opportunity in High-Quality Bonds
The rising debt burden of the U.S. government is becoming an increasingly serious economic concern. While it may not be an immediate crisis, it has the characteristics of a slow-moving domestic pandemic.
Beyond AI: Where Investors Can Still Find Dividend Growth in 2026
The corporate world is awash in capex. Leaders in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into tech projects, and uncertainty surrounds their profitability. For now, the market rewards this use of cash, but it’s not without pitfalls. Share buybacks, for instance, are seen as a net loser, while the S&P 500® dividend yield has sunk toward all-time lows near 1%.
When Flows Meet a Hawkish Fed
Here’s the setup most investors are underrating right now. Over the next two weeks, the tape will trade on plumbing rather than fundamentals. We just cleared the largest options expiration in history. Quarter-end pension selling comes next, and then July 1 reopens the passive-money firehose into a market that already routes forty cents of every S&P 500 dollar into ten stocks.
Crypto Critic Nouriel Roubini Finds a Use for the Blockchain
Nouriel Roubini, the economist known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis and later for his sharp criticism of crypto, is putting one of his investment products on the blockchain.
SpaceX Launches Starfall Mission for In-Space Manufacturing
SpaceX launched a demonstration mission Tuesday to send a reusable capsule into space and then recover it, part of a new program that may allow the Elon Musk-led company to tap into the emerging market of in-space manufacturing.
US to Award $17.5 Billion in Loans for Large Nuclear Reactors
The Trump administration is providing $17.5 billion to help finance equipment orders for large-nuclear reactors being built by Westinghouse Electric Co., according to people familiar with the matter.
Kevin Warsh Could Shake Up the Fed
Kevin Warsh, the new chairman of the FOMC, has long been critical of forward guidance, which is the Fed’s practice of explicitly signaling the future path of interest rates (e.g., “rates will stay low for an extended period” or publishing a projected path for policy rates). His concern is that the guidance could give the impression that policymakers might have a high degree of confidence about the future path of the economy and rates.
How a US-Iran Deal Could Influence the Economy and Financial Markets
The US-Iran conflict – and its impact on oil prices – has dominated headlines over the past three months. Higher oil prices have pushed inflation to a three‑year high, reshaping the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.
Physical AI & Global Reshoring Beyond the Humanoid Hype
Humanoid robots grab headlines, but they are just a fraction of the physical AI ecosystem. Autonomous robots, drones, cobots, and eVTOLs are rapidly scaling across industrial and defense sectors.
A Quarter Century of Data Says the Airline Opportunity Could Just Be Getting Started
On Monday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran have reached a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply normally flows.
Meet the New Boss. Different from the Old Boss.
Chris Galipeau discusses high-conviction insights that go beyond media headlines.
Why the Bond King is Betting on Hikes, Hype & Global Rotation
Discover why DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach is urging a structural defensive rotation into emerging markets and international assets.
Space ETFs: How SpaceX Is Reshaping the Theme
The emergence of leveraged ETFs tied to Space Exploration Technologies (more familiarly known as SpaceX) points to strong investor demand for concentrated exposure.
Rethinking the Default: Are Secondary Funds Still the Right Choice?
For much of the past decade, secondary funds served as the default entry point into private equity for a number of wealth managers, registered investment advisors, and institutional allocators. These investment vehicles allowed investors to acquire exposure to a private equity fund by purchasing the interest of one of its existing primary investors.
Are Backyard Data Centers an Answer to AI's Biggest Problem?
Data center developers are struggling to connect to the power grid and, not unrelatedly, connect with people. Perhaps half the data center projects due to start operating this year won’t arrive on time, according to Currence, an artificial intelligence analytics firm.
Federal Reserve Press Conference: Lots to Unpack, but Inflation Is Not a Choice
There is a great deal to unpack from this week’s press conference by the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh. Most striking is his markedly different approach to Fed communications. This was evident not only in the statement accompanying the federal funds rate decision, but also in the abandonment of forward guidance and his reluctance to provide insight into the committee’s internal deliberations.
Three Ways to Offset Income From a Roth Conversion
Roth conversions provide tax-free retirement income to hedge against future tax hikes, but they trigger an immediate tax bill. Fortunately, strategic planning can help minimize this upfront cost.
U.S.-Australia Agreement Underscores Importance of Rare Earths
Exposure to critical minerals, specifically rare earths, provides an opportunity for investors to capitalize on growth and diversify their portfolios simultaneously. However, there are also geopolitical implications that investors should know about as well. In particular, more nations are reducing their reliance on China.
Glass and Light: The Infrastructure Layer of the Quantum Market Is Missing
Co-packaged optics, the technology of integrating lasers and optical components directly into network switches rather than using pluggable modules, is becoming the standard architecture for large-scale GPU clusters, and Nvidia needed to lock in supply for the buildout it is planning.
EM Debt—What Reserve Managers Should Keep in Mind
Reserve managers' decisions on EM debt go beyond investment potential—they must also weigh considerations such as governance, resources and liquidity.
Are We All Active Investors Now?
Markets are always changing — and sometimes the rules of finance do, too. I believe markets are efficient, which means my investment portfolio is pretty much all index funds. My enthusiasm for indexing is based on evidence from the Before Times, when the question of a corporation’s index-worthiness was straightforward.
SpaceX-Tesla Inc. Is Inching Closer. Watch Out, Nvidia?
For Elon Musk, the public market debut of SpaceX could hardly have gone better. It priced at the dictated $135 per share and has since jumped by almost half, adding more than $870 billion in just three trading sessions to an already huge market capitalization.
SpaceX Stole the Show, but These Market-Moving Events Could Drive Stocks Next
It’s a busy finish to the first half on the corporate event calendar. The bulls have the lead, but the bears have had their moments of glory so far this year. A handful of key AGMs, conferences, and earnings events will keep investors on their toes amid a colorful macro backdrop.
Embracing Sustainability May Benefit Business
Green life, sustainable mutual funds, buying local, the “buy nothing” movement, plastic-free living, eco-fashion, electric vehicles. You’ve seen all the headlines about reducing your impact on the planet, but you may be wondering how you can best implement a greener workplace in a way that considers the needs of your business, employees and clients or customers.
Why We’re Staying at the Tech Party…and What Would Make Us Leave
The questions in our inbox have gotten louder lately. Are we reliving 1999? Has the tech rally reached the dangerous ‘Euphoria’ bubble stage we first discussed in our 2026 Outlook? And is the recent surge in initial public offerings (IPOs)— led by SpaceX on Friday— diluting existing holders just as valuations were already drawing scrutiny?
Private Markets in Retirement Plans: Unlocking Opportunities
In August 2025, the US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at broadening the investments available in defined contribution plans (DC plans). On March 30, 2026, the US Department of Labor issued proposed guidance regarding a plan fiduciary’s selection of investments, including private market and other alternative investments, in 401(k) plans.
Zillow Home Value Index: First Decline in Nine Months
Home values fell for the first time in nine months in May, according to the Zillow Home Value Index. Additionally, after adjusting for inflation, real home values dropped even more sharply, remaining at their lowest level in over five years.
The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Retail Sales
Nominal retail sales were up 0.88% month-over-month and up 6.88% year-over-year in May. However, after adjusting for inflation, real retail sales were up 0.41% month-over-month and up 2.60% year-over-year.
Retail Sales: Consumer Spending Up for Fourth Straight Month
According to the Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report, consumer spending climbed for the fourth straight month in May. Headline sales rose 0.9%, almost double the projected 0.5% growth and marking an acceleration from April's 0.4% rise.
Pending Home Sales Jump to 6-Month High
The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index jumped 3.8% in May to 76.8, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and highest level in six months.
SpaceX Extends Gains Into Fourth Day as Post-IPO Rally Hits 58%
SpaceX gained for a fourth straight day, cementing the company’s place among the world’s most valuable stocks after it surpassed Amazon.com Inc.
The Sandbox Problem
The instinct when deploying any new technology is to start small. Run a pilot. Test with a subset of data, a single team, or a simplified version of the real workflow. That instinct is sensible — but with AI agents, it carries different risks than those that exist with traditional software.