Emerging Markets

The headline employment figure came in stronger than expected and better than feared following the weak ADP report, but the details were far from a blockbuster.

If you’ve been following the mainstream financial media lately, you might think the airline industry is in crisis. From headlines about tariffs and labor costs to geopolitical tensions and delays at Newark Airport, it sounds like air travel should be tanking.

We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.

It was a positive quarter for emerging markets equities.

The earnings bar is fairly low for the second quarter, setting companies up for a potential easy jump—but there will likely be more focus on forward guidance.

As the second half gets underway, we think a modest overweight to risk assets is called for.

This year, so far, the world has been riddled with geopolitical news, resonating in widespread unrest, yet seemingly yielding less impact on financial markets.

Below, we recount highlights from constituents of the ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index (ROBO) and the ROBO Global Artificial Intelligence Index (THNQ).

Semiconductor equities and related ETFs notched impressive performances in the first half of the year. They were buoyed by ongoing enthusiasm for the AI trade and post-Liberation Day resurgence by the Magnificent Seven.

In last week’s letter, I referenced Torsten Sløk’s excellent midyear outlook for Apollo Global Management. Today I’ll share some longer quotes which will, I hope, help you visualize where the economy is headed.

Tariffs have been the dominant theme in economic policy this year. While President Trump has long held protectionist views, his administration’s approach to international commerce has been more belligerent than was seen in his first term.

After a tumultuous few months, June of 2025 saw a strong rally which took global markets to (or close to) new highs. The rally was broad-based, with international and U.S. markets all up strongly.

As the global economy navigates a complex landscape, investors are left wondering: are they right to be optimistic or are they being complacent? This article from Franklin Templeton Institute explores the signs of resilience as well as numerous risks.

Sharp U.S. policy shift and elevated uncertainty reflect an evolution of the new macro regime. What matters: getting a grip on uncertainty by identifying its core features.

Israel-Iran hostilities brought a short-term market focus on oil. Longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) electricity needs could create a power shortage, as well as opportunities and risks for investors.

Equity markets continued to march higher in June, seemingly unfazed by heightened Middle East tensions (which were short-lived) and the looming July 8 deadline for the administration’s pause on reciprocal tariffs.

An economy cannot subsist on services alone.

In recent months, markets have whipsawed amid changes in trade policy, geopolitical shocks, concerns about fiscal sustainability, challenges to central bank independence, technological advancements, and earnings surprises in both directions. Despite this, stocks and bonds in much of the world are close to where they began the year.

When the Fed increased the M2 money supply by over 40% during the COVID crisis, our instinct was that the implications would extend far beyond a temporary boost to the U.S. stock market and higher inflation. That intuition is proving accurate. We’re now seeing the long-term ripple effects play out in real time across multiple asset classes and global markets.

This year’s formidable challenges have clarified strategic lessons for equity investors to apply in the coming months

India has seen foreigners leaving the market for most of 2025. For this and other reasons, India has become one of the bigger shorts in our Systematic Global Macro Strategy’s equity portfolio

As direct lending matures and other private credit areas expand, active investors can apply relative value strategies across sectors – and even entire markets – to pursue enhanced outcomes.

Markets notched fresh all-time highs on Friday with a positive tone and geopolitical outlook. Swift retreat in oil back to pre-strike levels, combined with friendlier NATO negotiations and de-escalated fighting in Iran restored risk appetite.

A potential conflict with Iran has consistently appeared in our monthly Market Risk Monitor for over two years. Now that risk has materialized. Our equity portfolio managers assess the implications for global markets.

Easing trade tensions and hopes the Senate could pass a budget gave stocks an early lift after Friday's record highs. The week is packed with jobs news and Powell talks tomorrow.

Readers of a certain age will no doubt recall President Ronald Reagan launching one of the most ambitious military buildups in American history.

Growth is expected to decelerate, but not come crashing down.

In a recent newsletter, we explored the explosive growth of ETFs and the implications for portfolio construction. In this follow-up blog post, Lauren and I wanted to take that conversation a step further—diving deeper into how advisors can navigate the ever-expanding ETF universe while staying true to their investment philosophy.

Thematic investing has experienced cycles of popularity over time. In less cautious market environments, investors often turn their attention to ambitious ideas — such as disruptive technologies or other transformative future trends — looking beyond traditional equity ETFs.

The United States’ tariff announcement on April 2, 2025, created significant market volatility, as the tariffs were perceived as higher, broader, and more punitive than expected, and the implementation sooner.

Market uncertainty needs a tailor-made approach to fixed income for advisors to construct the ideal portfolio for their clients. There’s an easier solution that encompasses an active management approach, various income sources, and low cost. It’s the Vanguard Multi-Sector Income Bond ETF (VGMS).

For years, Americans have lamented that rising housing prices and elevated mortgage rates have made homeownership unaffordable for too many first-time homebuyers, while prompting many homeowners to stay put rather than sell.

The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.

Until recently, commercial real estate appeared poised for a long-awaited rebound. However, 2025 has revealed a new reality: Uncertainty has become structural.

NATO's new spending pledge eases security concerns but adds to fiscal pressures.

Index futures inched upward premarket as the headline May PCE data landed in line with expectations, though the core data and annual figures were up slightly.

Money Metals Midweek Memo host Mike Maharrey isn’t buying the recent bearish turn in gold forecasts from Wall Street.

Today’s investment landscape, shaped by persistently above-target inflation, structurally higher debt and deficits, and reduced global dollar recycling into US financial markets, has contributed to elevated market volatility alongside historically high policy uncertainty.

ETFs have surged in popularity thanks to their transparency, low costs and tax efficiency. But behind the scenes, a unique dual-market system powers their liquidity and accessibility.

Jeff Chang, CFA, President of Vest, a pioneer of Target Outcome Investments with some $50 billion under management, examines how geopolitical events like U.S. airstrikes can create ripple effects across global markets, and why the actual impact often depends more on context than headlines suggest.

It wasn’t too long ago that you could confidently proclaim that most of the Street was ebullient, maybe even wildly so, with respect to the greenback’s prospects.

Target-date fund glide paths can be important tools for retirement planning. Advisors should focus on assumptions, transparency, and outcomes to ensure they align with participants' needs.

Tensions in the Middle East and their effect on oil prices have dominated the recent news headlines—and for good reason. A rise in oil prices, especially if it lasts, can push up inflation and slow down economic growth.