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The Big Four Recession Indicators

Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: May 2026 Employment

There is a general belief that there are four big indicators that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. This commentary focuses on one of these indicators: nonfarm employment. In May, total nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 while the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%.

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Employment Report: 172K Jobs Added in May, Higher Than Expected

The latest employment report showed that 172,000 jobs were added in May, down slightly from April's 179,000 gain. This figure was more than double the projected addition of 85,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, as expected.

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The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq: Real Returns Since 2000 Peak (May 2026)

Here is a look at real (inflation-adjusted) charts of the S&P 500, Dow 30, and Nasdaq composite since their 2000 highs. We've updated this through the May 2026 close.

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The Total Return Roller Coaster: May 2026

Here's an interesting set of charts that will especially resonate with those of us who follow economic and market cycles. Imagine that five years ago you invested $10,000 in the S&P 500. How much would it be worth today, with dividends reinvested but adjusted for inflation?

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Secular Bull and Bear Market Trends: May 2026

The S&P 500 real monthly averages of daily closes reached a its all-time high in May 2026. Let's examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of historical bull and bear market trends in market performance.

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America's Driving Habits: April 2026

Travel on all roads and streets increased in April. The 12-month moving average was up 0.05% month-over-month and was up 1.04% year-over-year. However, if we factor in population growth, the 12-month MA of the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) was up 0.02% month-over-month and up 0.40% year-over-year.

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Vehicle Sales Inch Up 0.4% in May

Vehicle sales inched up in May, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.083 million units. This represents a 0.4% increase from the previous month and a 3.2% rise from one year ago.

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Initial Unemployment Claims Up 13K, Higher Than Expected

In the week ending May30th, initial jobless claims were at a seasonally adjusted level of 225,000, the highest level in nearly four months. This represents an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's figure and was higher than the forecast of 214,000.

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Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: May 2026

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield.

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Buffett Valuation Indicator: May 2026

Following the Q1 GDP second estimate, the 'Buffett Indicator'—the ratio of corporate equities to GDP—now stands at 229.7%. This marks the second-highest reading in history, eclipsed only by the previous quarter.

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Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Sinks Below $70K

Bitcoin struggled for a third straight week, dropping below $70,000 for the first time since early April. BTC is currently down approximately 24% year-to-date and sits ~47% below its October 2025 record high.

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ISM Services PMI: Continued Expansion in May

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its May Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), with the headline composite index at 54.5. This was higher than the forecast of 53.7 and keeps the index in expansion territory for a 23rd consecutive month.

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S&P Global Services PMI: Slower Expansion in May

The May U.S. Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from S&P Global inched down 0.3 points to 50.7, indicating slower expansion in the services sector. The latest reading was lower than the forecast of 50.9 and was among the weakest months of expansion in the past 2.5 years.

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ADP National Employment Report: 122K Private Jobs Added in May

The ADP employment report revealed that 122,000 nonfarm private jobs were added in May, the largest monthly growth since January 2025. The latest figure was just above the projected 118,000 addition.