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Quarterly Review and Outlook Second Quarter 2026
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 7/28/26

The structural backdrop for U.S. inflation increasingly suggests that the long run equilibrium range is migrating from roughly 1.5–3.5% toward 3.5–4.5%, with a significant risk of episodes of inflation above 5%. An important core reason is the steady erosion of the disinflationary architecture that dominated the 1990–2020 period, even as various cyclical pressures also play a role.

Quarterly Review and Outlook First Quarter 2026
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 4/21/26

Oil shocks hitting economies with weak demand and strained balance sheets are especially damaging. Firms cannot fully pass on rising costs, so margins shrink, layoffs increase, and investment falls. Tightening monetary and credit conditions would cause inflation to fade faster but job losses, failures, and fragile household finances to be much worse.

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – 4Q 2016
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 2/9/17

The 2016 presidential election has brought about widely anticipated changes in fiscal policy actions.

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – 4Q2015
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 1/21/16
The economy was supposed to fire on all cylinders in 2015. Sufficient time had passed for the often-mentioned lags in monetary and scal policy to finally work their way through the system according to many pundits inside and outside the Fed. Surely the economy would be kick-started by: three rounds of quantitative easing and forward guidance; a record Federal Reserve balance sheet; and an unprecedented increase in federal debt from $9.99 trillion in 2008 to $18.63 trillion in 2015, a jump of 86%.

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook – 3Q2015
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 10/16/15
Future business activity will reflect two economic realities: 1) the over-indebted state of the U.S. economy and the world; and 2) the inability of the Federal Reserve to initiate policies to promote growth in this environment.

Quarterly Review and Outlook Second Quarter 2015
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 7/22/15
From the cyclical monthly high in interest rates in the 1990-91 recession through June of this year, the 30-year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 9% to 3%. This massive decline in long rates was hardly smooth with nine significant backups.

Quarterly Review and Outlook
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 1/23/15
Commodity price declines were the symptom of sharply deteriorating economic conditions prior to the 1920-21 depression. To be sure, today?s economic environment is different. The world economies are not emerging from a destructive war, nor are we on the gold standard, and U.S. employment is no longer centered in agriculture and factories (over 50% in the U.S. in 1920). The fact remains, however, that global commodity prices are in noticeable retreat.

Quarterly Review and Outlook, Second Quarter 2014
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 7/17/14
Hoisington and Hunt review the second quarter in their regular review.

Quarterly Review and Outlook
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 4/18/14
After examining much of the latest scholarly research, and conducting in house research on the link between household wealth and spending, we found the wealth effect to be much weaker than the FOMC presumes. In fact, it is difficult to document any consistent impact with most of the research pointing to a spending increase of only one cent per one dollar rise in wealth at best. Some studies even indicate that the wealth effect is only an interesting theory and cannot be observed in practice.

Quarterly Review and Outlook - Fourth Quarter 2013
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 1/30/14
In The Theory of Interest, Irving Fisher, who Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman called Americas greatest economist, created the Fisher equation, which states the nominal bond yield is equal to the real yield plus expected inflation. It serves as the pillar of macroeconomics and as the foundational relationship of the bond market. It has been reconfirmed many times by scholarly examination and by the sheer force of historical experience. Examining periods of both low and high inflation offers insight into how each variable in the Fisher equation affects the outcome.

Quarterly Review and Outlook
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 10/25/13
When an economy is excessively over-indebted and disinflationary factors have forced central banks to make overnight interest rates as close to zero as possible, central bank policy has repeatedly proved powerless to further move inflation or growth metrics. Four considerations suggest the Fed will continue to be unsuccessful in engineering stronger growth and higher inflation with their continuation of the current program of Large Scale Asset Purchases.

Quarterly Review and Outlook
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 7/24/13
The secular low in bond yields has yet to be recorded. This assessment for a continuing pattern of lower yields in the quarters ahead is clearly a minority view, as the recent selling of all types of bond products attest. The rise in long term yields over the last several months was accelerated by the recent Federal Reserve announcement that it would be tapering its purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. This has convinced many bond market participants that the low in long rates is in the past.

Quarterly Review and Outlook
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 4/19/13
The Federal Reserve is printing money. No statement could be less truthful. The Federal Reserve is not, and has not been, printing money as defined as an acceleration in M2 or money supply. A review of post-war economic history would lead to a logical assumption that the money supply would respond upward to this massive infusion of reserves into the banking system. The reality is just the opposite. Printing money? No.

Quarterly Review and Outlook
by Van Hoisington, Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, 1/18/13
The American Taxpayer Relief Act has lifted the immediate uncertainty of the fiscal cliff. Nevertheless, tax increases that are already in effect from this act, as well as the Affordable Care Act, impose a major obstacle to growth for the U.S. economy in the first half of 2013. The result of these taxes is considerable, especially in light of the poor trend in household income. In addition, these tax increases will continue to act as a drag on economic growth until late in 2015 and are unlikely to produce the revenue gains advertised.
14 results found.