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The Slippery Welcome Mat for Rising Rates,
The commencement of a policy-rate-hike cycle by the US Federal Reserve has both symbolic and material significance for the US economy and financial system. Gradually unwinding unconventional, ultra-accommodative monetary policies sets in motion the repricing of assets and other long-delayed adjustments in economic, financial and currency markets. Comparing economic and financial outcomes with prior rate-hike cycles provides clues as to the possible outcomes this time around, but they have little predictive power.
Rising Rates: A Good Thing for Bond Investors?
by Wendy Stojadinovic of Cleary Gull,
When interest rates rise, the price of your bond goes down. That’s obviously not a good thing at the time it happens, but investors should consider how their bond investment does over time. The change in price is not the only component of your return. In fact, the income you receive and the rate at which you reinvest that income are typically the biggest components of bond returns. Rising rates aren’t the worst thing for bond investors. In fact, for long term investors, rising rates are a good thing. The more rates go up, the more you earn.
On My Radar: El-Erian’s 2016 Outlook & The T Junction
I spent a few days earlier in the week in Scottsdale, Arizona. I was invited to present on portfolio positioning and best execution at the 20th annual IMN Global Indexing and ETF Conference. One of the big highlights for me was El-Erian’s keynote presentation.
Today, I share with you my notes from El-Erian’s speech. He is humble, balanced and brilliant. I have listened to my recording of his presentation several times. Stop-start-rewind-replay-rinse-repeat. Fun for me and well worth the effort.
In short, he puts the odds for a good outcome at 50/50 saying he, “hates to say that."
Deja Vu: The Fed's Real "Policy Error" Was To Encourage Years of Speculation
by John Hussman of Hussman Funds,
Over the past several years, yield-seeking investors, starved for any “pickup” in yield over Treasury securities, have piled into the junk debt and leveraged loan markets. Just as equity valuations have been driven to the second most extreme point in history (and the single most extreme point in history for the median stock, where valuations are well-beyond 2000 levels), risk premiums on speculative debt were compressed to razor-thin levels. By 2014, the spread between junk bond yields and Treasury yields had fallen to less than 2.4%.
Government Funding Deadline
Congress has agreed to fund the government for another five days – through December 16 - to give it time to work out longer term appropriations legislation. The sides are furiously negotiating that appropriations bill, but progress has been slow. The sticking points mostly involve what policy “riders” should be attached to the final legislation. Most of these riders are not directly related to government funding.
George Friedman’s World of Geopolitics
by John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics,
In today’s letter, I have transcribed a conversation George Friedman and I had a few days ago. In it, we talk about how our new joint effort came about and why George has left Stratfor to create his new firm, Geopolitical Futures.
Intelligent Design Sustainable Income
The AND principle means building in desirable features without the trade-offs that conventional thinking considers inevitable. Case in point: an equity income index holding liquid, quality stocks with high dividend yields. (1) The AND principle holds that creative product design can surmount some trade-offs that conventional thinking considers unavoidable.Simple investment strategies are easier to govern than complex ones and may be less likely to result in catastrophic outcomes. A simple new design demondemonstrates that income-oriented indices need not trade off yield for capacity & quality.
China Takes a Big Step Forward
by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital,
On November 30th the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it would admit China’s Renminbi currency, commonly known as the Yuan, to the select basket of reserve currencies that make up its Special Drawing Rights (SDR’s). Having been stalled by U.S. influence for many years, the long-awaited IMF decision acknowledges the massive transfer of financial power from the old West to the new East. The move heralds an era of potentially great change with global implications for politics, economics and investments.
2016 – Mute the TV
With 2016 right around the corner, investors should remember that it rarely helps portfolio performance to listen to the 24-hour news cycle and Presidential candidates’ rhetoric. We’d rather invest for our clients based on a rigorous analysis of data, which currently suggests the US economy is in considerably better shape than recent campaigning suggests. For 2016, it’s time to mute the TV and focus on fundamentals, not noise.
Extreme Leverage in a Gold Futures Market Nearing the Breaking Point
The metals markets rallied strongly on Friday – action which came as a surprise to many. The gains snapped a 6-week losing streak for gold, silver, and platinum. Prices rose despite a stronger-than-expected November jobs report raising the odds the Fed will hike interest rates later this month.
2016 Fixed Income Outlook: New Episode, Same Show
by Anthony Valeri of LPL Financial,
We expect a limited return environment may persist in 2016 and the year as a whole may look similar to 2015. High valuations, steady economic growth, and the lingering threat of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes may keep pressure on bond prices in 2016. We do not envision a recession developing, which we believe is ultimately needed for a sustained move higher in bond prices.
Eurozone 2016 Economic and Capital Market Outlook
Six years after the financial crisis, the Eurozone continues to face major challenges in restoring economic growth. Our investment thesis has been that the structural problems facing the European Union are real impediments to sustained economic growth and until they are addressed, sustained growth is elusive. While that does not mean that there are not investment opportunities in Europe, it does mean that as one of three major capital markets in the world, investors need to be careful.
Breaking Down US Energy Valuations
by Eric Bush of GaveKal Capital,
It’s not breaking news to say its been a bad year for energy stocks but it might be breaking news that not all energy stocks are trading at cheap valuations. In the United States, the median energy stock is down nearly 29% (the average energy stock is down about 23%). As this first chart shows, energy has clearly been the worst sector by a wide margin.
The Paris Climate Negotiations: A World in Transition
by BMO Global Asset Management’s Governance and Sustainable Investment team of BMO Global Asset Management,
The stage is set in Paris for global leaders to secure a climate change deal, which would aim to curb fossil fuel use. China, India and United States are signaling their willingness to keep global warming to within two degrees Celsius. We have intensively engaged policy makers and companies advocating for reforms, which will result in a smooth transition path to a more sustainable climate.
GMO Quarterly Letter
by Ben Inker, Jeremy Grantham of GMO,
In a new quarterly letter to GMO's institutional clients, co-head of asset allocation Ben Inker examines whether emerging-market equities might be a "value trap," and if U.S. equities are "deserving of trading at a premium P/E to the rest of the world" ("Just How Bad Is Emerging, and How Good Is the U.S.?"). In part two of the letter, chief investment strategist Jeremy Grantham provides "a list of propositions that are widely accepted by an educated business audience ... but totally wrong. ...
An Illustrated Timeline of the Gold Standard in the U.S.
Ever since the U.S. left the gold standard for good in 1971, some politicians and investors have called for its return. At one of the Republican presidential debates in October, Texas Senator Ted Cruz became the latest, touting the stability and booming prosperity the U.S. economy enjoyed in the years when the dollar was pegged to the yellow metal.
Understanding Covered Call CEFs
by Roger Nusbaum of AdvisorShares,
Barron’s recently had a favorable write up on closed end funds that one way or another use a covered call strategy as a means of providing income. Where the article focused on CEFs, the yields can be quite high because of the leverage that CEFs often use as well as returning capital, when necessary to maintain a payout. It is also worth noting that there are traditional funds that sell calls and ETFs that sell calls and puts too for that matter.
Why Getting Valuation Right Is So Important To Retired Dividend Growth Investors
by Chuck Carnevale of F.A.S.T. Graphs,
Although getting valuation right before you buy a stock is critically important to the long-term oriented retired dividend growth investor, it is not a short-term market timing concept. My point is that short-term market movements are typically volatile and unpredictable. The reason is simple. Over short periods of time, which I define as less than a business cycle (3- 5 years), emotion has a major effect on stock prices.
What to Expect When You're Expecting (a Fed Hike)
by Scott Brown of Raymond James,
It’s anticipated that the Fed will begin tightening monetary policy soon, but many investors may be unfamiliar with how policy will be tightened. Let’s review the key policy tools and how this tightening cycle will differ from previous cycles.
Retirement Savings Crisis Getting Worse, Not Better
As long-time readers know, one of my continuing themes over the years has been saving, and in particular saving for retirement. Record numbers of Americans are retiring every year and, unfortunately, most have not saved nearly enough for the retirement lifestyle they envisioned.
Mid-Week Update
by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch,
SPY will have a golden cross tomorrow. It follows NDX which had a golden cross in mid-November and is now near a 15-year high. Equity-only put/call ratios jumped on Tuesday; this has preceded upside in the past. Also, some updated views on breadth, macro and valuation.
Back to a Routine: 2016 Economic Outlook
by John Canally of LPL Financial,
Our view is that the U.S. economy—as measured by real gross domestic product (GDP)—is likely to post growth of 2.5–3.0% in 2016. This rate is below its post-World War II average of 3.2%, but above the 2–2.5% average growth rate seen in the first six-and-a-half years of this expansion, based on the factors discussed below. Despite the length of the current expansion (already the fourth longest on record), it has not followed what would be considered a routine path.
2016: The Fed Acts? Consumers Spend? Inflation Returns? Possible Economic Impacts?
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on December 15-16 to consider, among other issues, raising the Federal funds rate. Even the man-on-the-moon, or out of respect to today’s sensitivities—the person-on-the-moon, waits with great anticipation for this well telegraphed decision. The publicity surrounding this decision over the last year seems similar to the noise surrounding Y2K—perhaps with the same muted reaction.
Steady Is Stellar
As we approach the end of the year, it is customary to take stock of major developments. Economic data point to continued forward momentum in the United States. All in, the economy has grown at an average pace of 2.2% during the first three quarters of the year, nearly matching the potential growth rate of the economy. The labor market is in a significantly better spot than it was at the beginning of the year. Inflation is low despite the age of the expansion.
How to Focus Your Practice on Millenials
I receive a lot of questions about marketing to the next generation and working with millennials. For this week’s column, I sought input from a successful financial advisor who is a millennial and focuses on them in his own business. Read on for some millennial advice from Eric Roberge, founder of Beyond Your Hammock.
Respect the Auto Sales Surge
Cars and light trucks – SUVs, minivans, and pick-ups – have been a key bright spot in the economy the past few years, particularly with tepid growth in overall manufacturing caused by weak foreign economies and a stronger dollar. The pace seen in September, October, and November marks the first time in history that auto sales have exceeded an 18 million annual rate in three consecutive months.
Extending the Cycle
by Erik Knutzen of Neuberger Berman,
At our most recent (fourth-quarter) Asset Allocation Committee meeting, perhaps the single most important issue we considered was whether the then-fresh decline of risk assets indicated a needed bull market correction, or something far more serious. Our analysis suggested short-term weakness, but for a while, the noise around China’s devaluation, Federal Reserve policy and concern about emerging markets and commodity prices had many investors very worried.
No Pain No Gain: 2016 May Require Tolerance for Volatility
by Burt White of LPL Financial,
Gains in 2016 may require tolerance for volatility. Stocks historically have offered a tradeoff of higher return for higher risk, the gain of more upside than high-quality bonds versus the pain of market volatility and losses. For the last few years, U.S. stock markets provided below-average pain, while still providing strong returns. Between October 2011 and July 2015, the S&P 500 Index went nearly four years without a “correction” of more than 10%, while climbing an average of 20% a year.
How to Create Baseline Job Descriptions
by Kristen Luke,
Managing human capital is complex. If you run a smaller firm, wearing multiple hats is the norm. One person might act as your senior advisor, associate advisor, operations manager and client service specialist. This makes it especially difficult to create job descriptions and run your firm as efficiently and effectively as possible.
An End-of-Year Marketing Checklist
by Crystal Butler,
While you are scrambling to finish the last quarter’s tasks that may have gotten lost in the wrapping paper, I want to make sure you do not forget anything that will make 2016 your best year ever. Here is a checklist to make your marketing is as impactful as possible.
An Evolving Investment Landscape May Benefit Equities
Equity markets were volatile last week, losing ground early before rebounding.
Sentiment soured over a more modest easing announcement than expected
by the European Central Bank (ECB). OPEC’s decision to leave oil production
unchanged triggered a drop in energy prices, which also acted as a drag on
equities. Additionally, a weak manufacturing report contributed to the gloomy
tone. However, a strong jobs report on Friday seemed to pave the way for the
Fed to raise rates this month and allowed equity prices to rally strongly.
The Evolution of IS
An IS affiliate downed a Russian flight in October. In November, IS-affiliated terrorists launched a series of attacks in Paris. These two events suggest a significant change in IS’s behavior. Prior to the Paris attacks, IS appeared focused on building a caliphate in Syria and Iraq. The shift to terrorist acts suggests a new strategy. In this report, we recap the strategies radical jihadists have employed against the West, highlighting the differences between al Qaeda and IS.
Results 2,901–2,950
of 21,777 found.
